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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.